January 2024
Since 2018, global wine consumption has been falling steadily. According to the latest data from the OIV, world wine consumption is estimated at 232 million hl for 2022, down 2 million hl on 2021.
This negative trend is mainly attributable to the fall in wine consumption in China, which has lost an average of around 2 million hl per year since then. This situation worsened in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic, which cast a shadow over the main wine markets, but other causes must be sought.
Let’s look at the data first.
On a global scale, the United States has been confirmed as the country with the highest wine consumption in the world in 2022. With an estimated volume of 34.0 million hl, up almost 3% on 2021, US consumption has returned to its pre-pandemic level.
In Russia, wine consumption is also increasing (positive trend since 2018) by 3% and is estimated at 10.8 million hl. The other countries recording an increase are Switzerland (2.6 million hl, +3%/2021) and South Africa, where consumption in 2022 is estimated at 4.6 million hl, a significant increase of 16% on 2021.
Apart from these countries, where consumption is rising, the rest of the world is tending to see a decline in wine consumption. In the Asian markets, estimates of wine consumption in China in 2022 indicate a value of 8.8 million hl, down 16% on 2021. This particularly negative figure makes a significant contribution to the decline in global consumption, although the contraction is also evident in many other countries. In Japan, for example, although there will be an increase from 2021 to 2022 with 3.4 million hl of wine (+2%/2021), a drop of 3% compared to the five-year average must be revealed.
In South America, the biggest consumer country in 2022 will be Argentina, continuing the negative trend of recent years with 8.3 million hl, down 1.3% on 2021. Brazil, South America’s second-largest market, with a level of 3.6 million hl in 2022, marks a 12.9% drop in consumption compared to the record levels recorded in 2020 and 2021.
Wine consumption in Australia in 2022 is estimated at 5.5 million hl (-3%/2021), down for the second year running and 2% below the five-year average.
In 2022, EU consumption is estimated at 111 million hl, 2% less than in 2021. The negative trend is continuing, and today a total of around 20 million hl less wine is consumed in the EU than in 2000 (-15%).
The European Commission predicts that this trend will continue in the coming years, with wine consumption falling by around 1% a year by 2035, to around 20 litres per capita (2.4 litres less than the annual average for the period 2018-2022).
The situation within the European Union differs between Member States. France, which consumed 25.3 million hl of wine in 2022, is the leading consumer country (and the second largest in the world). And 2022 is the second consecutive year of growth after the collapse in consumption caused by the Covid-19 health crisis. In Italy, the EU’s second largest market and the third largest in the world, estimated wine consumption in 2022 is 23 million hl, down 5% on 2021, but in line with the five-year average. Maintaining its position as the third largest consumer in the EU (and fourth largest in the world), Germany’s consumption in 2022 is estimated at 19.4 million hl (-3%/2021).
The countries recording a stable level of consumption are: Spain with 10.3 million hl in 2022 (-0.1%/2021), in line with the pre-pandemic level; Austria (2.4 million hl, -0.4%/2021) with a stable trend compared to recent years ; the Czech Republic (2.2 mln hl, +0.3%/2021) also shows no significant change from 2021, although the trend is up 6% on the five-year average. Finally, Romania (3.7 mln hl, -0.2%/2021) also remains stable.
On a negative trend are: The Netherlands (3.6 Mio hl, -3%/2021); Belgium (2.0 Mio hl, -15%/2021) and Sweden (2.0 Mio hl, -6%/2021), both of which see their consumption levels contract in 2022, both annually and relative to their five-year average. Still in Europe, but outside the EU, the United Kingdom – the world’s fifth-largest consumer – will see a slight contraction in consumption in 2022, estimated at 12.8 million hl (-2%/2021).
On the other hand, Portugal, with 6.0 million hl, will see an increase in consumption in 2022, not only compared to 2021 (+14%), but also compared to its own five-year average (+19%).
There are many reasons for this worldwide decline in wine consumption, some more contingent, others more structural.
The COVID pandemic was undoubtedly a key factor: consumption was curbed by the confinement measures, the difficulties of the Ho.Re.Ca. circuit and the absence of tourism. The lifting of restrictions on the movement of people and goods in 2021, together with the reopening of the Ho.Re.Ca. and the resumption of social life, meant that consumption – in part – resumed in most countries around the world. In 2022, however, the conflict in Ukraine and the ensuing energy crisis led to a sharp rise in inflation, with a significant increase in the consumer price of wine and a fall in purchasing power that sacrificed ‘unnecessary’ consumption such as wine.
It should also be noted that red wine consumption has fallen the most, while whites and sparkling wines are holding up well. This reflects the fact that wine consumption patterns are changing: less alcoholic beverages are being preferred and a ‘deconstruction’ of the traditional meal is being observed.
Public campaigns on health and the consequences of alcohol abuse may also have contributed to the preference for less alcoholic products, and the consumption of alcohol by young people – less and less linked to meals – is certainly a factor to be taken into account.
The fall in red wine consumption may therefore be offset by growth in demand for alcohol-free wines, low-alcohol wines, whites, rosés and sparkling wines, and by the general adaptation of the sectors to new demand patterns. For the wine sector to be able to respond to these new consumer trends, it must be in a position to reorient itself to meet changing demand.
